PRESS RELEASE | NYISO Releases Power Trends 2022: The Path to a Reliable, Greener Grid for New York

This year’s Power Trends focuses on the dramatic changes impacting New York’s power grid and how the NYISO is evolving its markets and performing critical system planning functions to fulfill the state’s clean energy objectives and maintain reliable electric service. 

The Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) requires an economy-wide approach to addressing climate change and decarbonization. Included are mandates to deliver 70% of New York energy from renewable resources by 2030 and 100% emissions-free electricity supply by 2040. Power Trends details how the NYISO’s planning activities are providing insight into future system needs and how competitive electricity markets can meet those needs most efficiently for consumers.

“The NYISO is at the forefront of the clean energy transition, working to achieve state emissions mandates with a balanced approach that maintains electric system reliability,” said Rich Dewey, President and CEO of the New York ISO. “We need to prepare the power system for risks to reliability while building the grid of the future, advancing the state’s economy, and supporting the health and safety of New Yorkers.”

Key messages

• The NYISO has established new market rules that advance the state’s clean energy policies. Wholesale electricity markets are open to significant investment in wind, solar and battery storage. 
• The transition to a cleaner grid in New York is leading to an electric system that is increasingly dynamic, decentralized, and reliant on weather-dependent renewable generation. 
• Reliability margins are shrinking. Generators needed for reliability are planning to retire. 
• Delays in the construction of new supply and transmission, higher than expected demand, and extreme weather could threaten reliability and resilience in the future.
• A successful transition of the electric system requires replacing the reliability attributes of existing fossil fueled generation with clean resources with similar capabilities. These attributes are critical to a dynamic and reliable future grid.
• New transmission is being built but more investment is necessary to support the delivery of offshore wind energy and to connect new resources upstate to downstate load centers where demand is greatest. Planning for additional new transmission to support offshore wind is underway. 

State of the Grid

The traditional roles of electric generation and consumption are changing. As a result, the complexity and the importance of accurate demand forecasting will grow increasingly important. Climate change is contributing to rising temperatures. This trend is expected to increase the number of summer days with high demand for electricity.  These findings are incorporated into NYISO long-term demand forecasts beginning in 2020. 

Hourly load profiles are also changing due to the growing impacts of behind-the-meter solar, electric vehicle charging, climate change, and post-COVID-19 societal shifts in the occupancy rates of homes and businesses. The hour of the summer peak is advancing into late afternoon, and eventually the peak may move to the early evening.  If electrification of space heating load evolves as state energy policymakers anticipate, the winter peak will eventually surpass the summer peak. This will have implications for reliability planning and future capacity requirements.  The current crossover from a summer peaking to a winter peaking electric system is forecasted to occur in the mid-2030s.

Wholesale Markets Incentivize Investment and Innovation

Wholesale markets stimulate the investments necessary to meet the state’s clean energy objectives, maintain reliability of the grid, and minimize costs for consumers. New rules are expected to encourage battery storage resources, which will help balance the intermittent nature of solar and wind power. Additionally, recent market changes have paved the way for substantially more investment in clean energy resources. But more investment and innovation in new energy technologies is essential.  Electricity production from dispatchable resources is key to meeting future demand and avoiding system interruptions, similar to those experienced recently in other parts of the country.

Maintaining Grid Readiness

The NYISO maintains a comprehensive program to address cyber and physical security risks, enabling the secure operation of New York’s bulk electric system and wholesale electricity markets in the face of an ever-evolving threat landscape. The systems and networks of electric sector organizations must remain secure, functional, and resilient at all times. 

The NYISO’s security program draws from mandatory North American Electric Reliability Corporation Critical Infrastructure Protection standards and other cybersecurity frameworks, guidelines, and best practices. The NYISO’s security posture is premised on continuous evaluation of its assets within the context of a highly dynamic range of cyber and physical security risks. The NYISO complies with mandatory cyber and physical security requirements as part of a layered, defense-in-depth strategy that relies on strong, security-focused processes, state-of-the-art technology, and skilled staff to protect its critical infrastructure assets from incursion, around-the-clock.

Conclusion

The NYISO is leading the way to meet the challenges brought by the clean energy transition. NYISO’s leadership in developing innovative market design enhancements, like the Comprehensive Mitigation Reform proposal, demonstrates its expertise in grid operations, market design, and system planning. That success also shows the NYISO’s ability to work across all sectors and interested parties to build consensus that supports reliability, consumer interests, climate policies, and new technologies that will help build the grid of the future.

Download the Power Trends 2022 report.

Visit the Power Trends 2022 webpage for additional figures, graphics, and downloads.