Future New York City Electric Grid Reliability Deficiency Explained
New York’s planned phase out of several small gas-fired power plants in New York City and Long Island contributes to a new reliability deficiency by 2033, according to the findings in the NYISO’s 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA).
Language in the state’s 2023-2024 budget requires the New York Power Authority (NYPA) to phase out certain small natural gas generators in and around New York City and Long Island, unless the generators are needed for electric system reliability. The recently published RNA captures this requirement, modeling 517 megawatts (MW) of NYPA’s small generator capacity as out-of-service beginning in January 2031.
New York City and Long Island are transmission-constrained areas and have needed to rely on local, fossil-fuel generation plants to serve load during times of peak demand, such as the hottest summer and coldest winter months. The RNA forecasts increases in demand due to electrification as contributing to the reliability need.
Since 2023, 1,027 MW of installed capacity from such fossil-fuel generation plants have been deactivated or have limited operation under the Department of Environmental Conservation’s Peaker Rule, which requires certain fossil-fuel generation plants to adopt stringent pollution controls or shut down by certain target dates.
With the assumption that NYPA small natural gas generators are unavailable and the forecasted increase in demand due to electrification, the RNA concludes that the bulk power transmission system will not be able to serve the forecasted demand reliably under normal weather conditions beginning in the summer of 2033. The deficiency grows from 17 MW to 97 MW by summer 2034. The combination of forecasted load growth and extreme weather, which often drives demand even higher, raises the risk of outages.
To address the 2033 deficiency, the NYISO will request and evaluate updates to local transmission plans and other relevant system updates and, if necessary, issue a solicitation for solutions from the marketplace and developers. Solutions may include new renewable energy resources, energy efficiency measures, and other measures used to manage electricity demand. The 2023-2024 budget language also permits NYPA to continue to produce energy from the small natural gas generators to support compliance with reliability standards, emergency power services, and if existing or proposed replacement generation resources would result a net increase in emissions.
A previous Reliability Need was identified by NYISO’s planning studies in July 2023. The NYISO’s second quarter Short-Term Assessment of Reliability identified a New York City Reliability Need, projecting a 446 MW deficiency starting in 2025. The NYISO initiated a process which called for solutions to address the 446 MW deficiency. Consistent with the DEC’s Peaker Rule and detailed in the Short-Term Reliability Process report issued on November 20, 2023, the NYISO has designated certain generators to temporarily continue operation beyond May 2025 until permanent solutions are in place, for an initial period of up to two years (May 1, 2027).
The Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) requires the state’s electric grid to be carbon-emissions free by 2040. Under this mandate, all fossil fuel generation in the state must eventually be retired and replaced with CLCPA-compliant resources. Notably, the RNA only considers generator retirements that have been identified either through statute or based on notices of retirement submitted to the NYISO.
Additional 2024 RNA Resources:
2024 Reliability Needs Assessment