Executive Summary
Power Trends explores the issues shaping New York’s electric system as it undergoes a historic transformation driven by simultaneous changes in supply, demand, and infrastructure.
The report highlights increasing and more uncertain electricity demand, a changing generation mix, and a system that is more geographically dispersed, weather‑dependent, and operationally complex. Maintaining reliability depends on disciplined planning, timely investment, and market structures that align investment with system needs and value operational performance during stressed conditions.
Trends shaping system conditions
Aging generation is a growing and measurable risk
Improved analytical tools highlight rising outage risks among older fossil‑fueled units that continue to provide essential reliability services, elevating aging infrastructure as a key planning consideration.
Winter conditions now drive key reliability stress cases
Fuel constraints affecting gas‑only generation, combined with rising winter demand, have shifted critical risk considerations from summer to winter, increasing reliance on demand response and emergency measures during cold weather events.
Potential demand from large loads is growing and less predictable
While electrification of the housing and building sectors continues to drive demand upward, potential demand from large loads — including data centers — is rising. This growth is difficult to forecast due to uncertainty with construction timelines, permitting, and evolving state policies. It also increases the need for flexible, dispatchable generation capability.
System uncertainty is widening
Electrification trends, renewable output variability, extreme weather, fuel constraints, and large load development have expanded uncertainty ranges, reinforcing the importance of scenario‑based, risk‑aware planning frameworks.
Reliability is increasingly dependent on the completion of development projects
Reliability assessments indicate that transmission security concerns could arise as early as summer 2026.
