Relying on the Grid’s Graying Generation
According to data from NYISO's 2024 Gold Book, 126 fossil-fuel generators that power the grid across New York are at least 40 years old. These units can generate 12,500 megawatts (MW) – which represents approximately a third of total summer capacity.
A growing number of those fossil-fuel generators are reaching an age at which similar units across the country have been deactivated, according to data in the NYISO’s 2024 Reliability Needs Assessment, a biennial report that examines potential solutions to projected reliability needs.
Machines that provide modern comfort and convenience have an expected life span. A report from the National Association of Home Builders found that most major home appliances have a life expectancy between 15-20 years. Additionally, the average age of cars and light trucks on the road today is just 12.6 years – according to a recent analysis from S&P Global.
“We are increasingly reliant on an aging fleet of generators to provide for the continued reliability of the system as we transition to more intermittent resources,” said NYISO Vice President of Operations, Aaron Markham.
The following figure shows that by 2028, more than 6,500 MW of gas-turbine and steam-turbine based capacity in New York will reach an age beyond which 95% of similarly aged generators have been taken out of service nationally.
As these fossil-fuel generators age, experiencing more frequent and longer outages, the cost to maintain them increases. The expense of maintenance, combined with the impact of policies to restrict or eliminate emissions, may drive aging generators into retirement. In turn, those retirements will contribute to declining reliability margins.
Compounding these challenges is rising demand due to electrification of housing and transportation, large data centers and chip manufacturing plants, and other changing system conditions.
Deactivating fossil-based generation to meet the state’s climate policies will require large investments in renewable resources, energy storage, flexible generation, and transmission projects across the state to meet rising demand for electricity through 2040. To meet forecasted demand, generating capacity may need to triple within the next 20 years and include flexible resources that can be dispatched by grid operators in response to dynamic system needs.