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Unwrapping NYISO's 2023-2024 Outlook on Winter Readiness

December 18, 2023

As temperatures and snowflakes fall across New York, it's important to highlight a recent study by our team of experts, which examines how the grid is expected to perform during the 2023-2024 winter season.

The NYISO Operating Study for Winter found that the grid can be operated reliably in accordance with the New York State Reliability Council Reliability Rules and the NYISO System Operating Procedures this winter. Specifically, based on forecasted conditions, peak demand for the Winter 2023-2024 capability period is expected to be 24,220 MW. This forecast is approximately 327 MW (1.36%) higher than the forecast of 23,893 MW for the Winter 2022-23 capability period, and 1,518 MW (6.27%) lower than the all-time seasonal peak of 25,738 MW, which occurred on January 7, 2014.

The study has also identified several changes in generation worth noting. A 303 MW reduction in capacity is due to recent generator deactivations. Since 2019, winter capacity margins have shrunk by 2,443 MW. And while there are adequate capacity margins based on forecasted conditions, a 1-in-100-year winter event would pose a significant risk to grid reliability.

A recent report from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation highlighted the challenges that the bulk electric faced during Winter Storm Elliott in December, 2023.

“During the Event, natural gas supply shortages began with freezing issues and weather-related access issues associated with production facilities and equipment, which rippled throughout the natural gas infrastructure system.”

Winter Graphic NYISO's 2023-2024 Outlook on Winter Readiness

Keeping the lights on – especially in the face of extreme winter weather – is part of our essential mission. Following strict reliability rules and established practices, NYISO’s operations team will continue to coordinate with generators, utilities, state agencies, and neighboring grid operators to assess changing conditions and maintain grid reliability during the 2024 winter season.

Additional Resources

How New York’s Power Grid Stayed Reliable During Recent Deep Freeze

Staying Cool in the Deep Freeze: How NYISO’s Forecasters Performed During Winter Storm Elliott

NYISO's 2023-24 Winter Assessment & Winter Preparedness Presentation

NERC's 2023–2024 Winter Reliability Assessment

Power Trends Podcast Episode 28 with NYISO’s Vice President of Operations, Aaron Markham