NYISO BLOG

On July 14, 2023, the New York ISO issued its Short-Term Assessment of Reliability for the second quarter of 2023 (Q2 STAR). The Q2 STAR assessed conditions on the bulk electric system in New York over a five-year study period of April 15, 2023, through April 15, 2028, considering forecasts of peak power demand, planned upgrades to the transmission system, and changes to the generation mix over the next five years.

For some time now, the NYISO has been reporting on declining reliability margins on New York’s grid, noting that New York City, in particular, is at increased risk of outages as soon as 2025. On July 14, 2023, we published the findings from our second quarter 2023 Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR) report. We found that through updates to our analysis margins in New York City disappear altogether in summer 2025. This required us to declare a “reliability need” in order to avoid outages and disruptions to New Yorkers’ power supply. But, how does the NYISO identify these types of concerns?

New York State has embarked on an ambitious journey towards a zero-emissions power grid by 2040. The timeframe seems so distant and the goal so overwhelming that it’s hard to know sometimes if we’re making progress. While plenty of work remains to decarbonize the grid, in some ways many of the small steps the state has already taken are contributing to significant changes in how the grid is supplied.

Maintaining a reliable energy system requires that enough power generating capacity is installed system-wide to meet projected electricity demand and reliability requirements.

In our previous blog post that looked at the NYISO’s Public Policy Transmission Planning Process, we mentioned three transmission projects that will help deliver clean energy to the grid of the future. In this post, we'll take a closer look at the Empire State Line and the AC Transmission Projects.

As public policies continue to shape the grid of the future, the need to invest in the transmission system has never been greater. The good news is that a historic level of investment is underway, with projects recently completed or under construction that will deliver more clean energy to consumers while enhancing grid reliability. However, to meet decarbonization goals, even more investment will be necessary as discussed in the NYISO’s System and Resource Outlook, a 2022 study that looked at potential resource development over the next 20 years.

The NYISO’s wholesale markets are designed to choose the most cost-efficient mix of energy to meet consumer demand and maintain reliability of the electric system. As summarized in our recent blog The Capacity Market's Role in Grid Reliability: Frequently Asked Questions, the NYISO capacity market is the means by which utilities and other electricity providers purchase sufficient supply to meet expected peak demand and reliability requirements.

At the NYISO, keeping the electric grid reliable will always be job one, managing the flow of electricity around the clock, every day of the year.

The NYISO’s capacity market supports reliability and cost efficiency through competitive auctions in which Market Participant’s meet resource adequacy requirements. Those requirements are established each year by the New York State Reliability Council (NYSRC), which sets the Installed Reserve Margin (IRM) for the system. The IRM represents the minimum level of capacity, beyond the forecasted peak demand, which utilities and other energy providers must procure to serve consumers.

Forecasting future demand on the power grid often begins by looking at historical data to understand how things like temperature changes can influence demand. For instance, on New York’s power grid, air conditioning is largely responsible for driving peak demand. As temperatures rise in the summer, air conditioning load increases. Understanding that relationship is important to prepare the grid to reliably meet peak demand conditions. Decades of historical data on how temperatures influence demand from air conditioning helps the NYISO accurately forecast future load based on expected and extreme temperature conditions.

We expect light when we flip a switch and our cell phones to charge when we plug them in. It seems simple enough, but the reality is that planning for electricity demand is a sophisticated process based on complex data sets from various sources.

Episode 26 of the Power Trends podcast delivers a change of pace for our listeners. In this episode, NYISO market mitigation economist Michelle Merlis discusses her long and challenging path to becoming a world-class trail runner.

Recognizing the importance of interconnecting new energy resources to the grid as quickly and as safely as possible, the NYISO is pleased to announce it has launched the 2023 Class Year, one month after the completion of the previous process.

“The objective is the reliability of the grid,” VP of System & Resource Planning Zach Smith says about the process his group oversees studying the impacts of connecting new electric resources to the grid. Because of state policies and technological advancements, more developers are seeking to connect to the grid, creating more demands on the New York ISO in overseeing the study process.

While we’re in the depths of winter, it’s easy to forget about how extreme heat can impact the reliability of the electric grid. But it wasn’t too long ago (back in early September 2022, to be exact) that much of the nation west of the Rockies experienced a record-breaking heatwave, notable for its intensity and duration.

In our latest Power Trends Podcast, we interview two leading Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysts about the impact of wholesale natural gas prices on winter electricity costs in New York.

The recent holiday-week deep freeze that strained gas networks and electricity grids across the nation had smaller impacts in New York due in large part to the ability of generators to switch fuels in times of tight supply.

As the transition to renewable energy accelerates in New York, we must monitor several factors to understand the impacts of this monumental change on electric system reliability. One of the biggest items to watch is progress with the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE) transmission facility, and the impact the project could have on declining reliability margins in New York City.

The Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA) forecasts system conditions over the next ten years to determine whether the grid will have sufficient generating capacity and transmission capability to meet expected demand. If it does not, a reliability need is declared and the NYISO takes action to resolve it. The identification of reliability needs through this assessment is guided by mandatory reliability rules set by independent reliability organizations or accepted by regulators, including the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, the Northeast Power Coordinating Council, the New York State Reliability Council, and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

This two-page datasheet provides the key takeaways from the 2022 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA).